Raven Paradox

An old Bleak cartoon but an appropriate one I think.

A couple of weeks ago a conservative friend and I were discussing the possibility of a Labor victory at next years election. Once a staunch supporter of Little Johnny, my friend Mick has softened in his advancing years and was prepared to entertain my supposition with the offer of a $100 bet on the outcome.

Six to eight months ago, it would have been $1000.

At the time of our conversation I suggested that Beazley would not lead the opposition into the next election, rather that Kevin Rudd would. I was of the opinion that when Parliament resumed in 2007, that their might be a leadership challenge.

Recent events suggest that such an event may occur even sooner.

I certainly hope that they get their act together and oust Beazley. I don’t like John Howard as a human being, I think that he is sneaky, mean spirited, deceitful, cunning, manipulative and cold hearted. That said, he seems to have a spine - however bent it may be under the weight of his dishonesty - and a country does need a strong and decisive leader.

Beazley on the other hand appears to me to be weak and spineless.

On the “Tampa issue“, Beazley displayed an ability to play populist politics that matched Howards. His stunning “me-tooism” was a shameless pissing contest of the highest order and completely betrayed both the principles and supporters of his party. Beazley was scared that the innate subconscious racism of the average Australian needed to be placated and so trumpeted the Howard line on asylum seekers.

He has never seemed to be able to inspire any sense of passion in the Australian public, he seems to lack a presence, a vision - and he certainly lacks the verbal sparring abilities of one PJK.

I couldn’t vote for Kim any more than I could for John - I could vote for Kevin but would he appeal to the wider populace.

Kevin Rudd is a very intelligent man. He speaks fluent Mandarin (which would be an undeniable asset for a leader in our region), has a tremendous grasp of current events and their impact on not only Australia or the region but the world at large and appears not to kowtow to any foreign powers - but does he speak to the people?

He has a very cultured manner of speaking that clearly highlights his education but this could be seen as arrogant or out of touch by some in the middle and lower classes. In the past 20 years in Australian politics, a successful leader has had somewhat of a common touch.

Bob Hawke was the ultimate common mans man.
John Howard has learned to tap into the fears and aspirations of the common man.

John Hewson and Paul Keating were unable to connect with the common majority nor has Kim Beazley been able to.

Mark Latham simply went too far with his crass and violent rherotic.

Could Kevin Rudd tone it down enough to connect to your average every day Australian?

Could his tailored eloquence ever deliver an impassioned and stirring speech the way that Whitlam, Hawke, Keating and Howard have been able to?

In the end I don’t believe that it will matter. I think, that regardless of who is steering the lurching ship that has become the Labor party, to borrow a phrase, “it’s time”.

I think that people have had enough of the cynical spirit that this government has fostered in this country, the meanness that it has engendered in the attitudes and morals of a majority of the populace. I believe that there is a stirring for change in the wind that will.

Hopefully when the wind blows Howard’s government from power we have a competent, capable, strong leader at the helm of the ALP, one who can begin to foster a new age of prosperity, not just in terms of the materialistic but the spiritual as well.