Raven Paradox

Some time this year, John W Howard will suffer the ignominy of a humiliating defeat.

It should have been (and perhaps still will be) at the hands of his long suffering treasurer Peter Costello.

Anyone who remembers John “The Boy Treasurer” Howard’s time at the helm of the economy in the Fraser government knows that Howard’s oft repeated mantra of “good economic managers” knows that the good fortunes that this country has enjoyed over the past 15 years or so have had little to do with Howard’s ability to manage the economy.Whilst rusted on Liberals will often trot out figures such as “17% interest rates under Labor”, they seem to forget that there were “22% interest rates under Howard”.

They also conveniently forget that it was the courageous and visionary reforms of Keating in the Hawke government of the mid to late eighties that set Australia on the path toward prosperity.

Costello has steered the ship competently but without the fiscal or economic vision that was Keating’s birthright.
He has been overshadowed by the dominant personality of Howard - without precedent as the most controlling party leader this nation has ever seen - he has attempted to speak out on social issues on occasion, to espouse his vision for a kinder, more forgiving, harmonious Australia but one gets the feeling that he has been privately chastised for doing so… his views on matters of social policy have often been in direct contrast to Howard’s.

Costello may make a good opposition leader, but would he make a good Prime Minister?

Sadly I don’t think that we will ever know. Howard shafted him on the leadership deal and Costello has never had the fortitude to stalk him from the back bench.

I am looking forward to the demise of John Howard. In all the time he has been Prime Minister of this country, he has done one wonderful thing - an undeniably wonderful thing - the introduction of gun control laws.

Aside from that, I cannot think of anything positive to say about the man. Certainly it can be said that he is tenacious and stubborn, a fighter perhaps but these attributes he displays to a fault.

He is quite possibly the nastiest, most divisive, intolerant, unkind, most mean spirited Prime Minister that this country has seen.

However his demise comes about, be it at the hands and pencils of the Australian people or the knife of Costello, it will be a sweet moment for all those who yearn for this country to return once again to the kind, tolerant, benevolent, open place it used to be.

I am sure that Paul J Keating wakes up with a massive grin each and every day.

Technorati Tags: Paul Keating, John Howard, Election 2007, Australian politics, Peter Costello

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Why did we vote this man out?

Australian politics has not and will probably never see his brilliance again.

A true visionary sadly misunderstood by the great unwashed.

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That this matter involving Kevin Rudd’s three meetings with Brian Burke even rated a mention in parliament (let alone the protracted airing that it has been given) shows just how farcical and desperate the Howard government has become.

Over at the SMH, Aaron Timms paints the matter in this amusing light:

“It used to be that the Panama was a sign of style and sophistication. Now it is short for suburban Italian meals and illegal mobile phone conversations involving repeated use of the word mate. Even over the past week, as the hat has remained malevolently glued to Burke’s scalp, it has been hard to escape the feeling that somewhere underneath that straw crown there must be at least a couple more Labor ministers hiding from the fact that they once shared a cream bun with Burke in the late 1990s.”

But in all seriousness, the vitriol that has been slung at Rudd in parliament by Abbott, Costelloand their increasingly rattled master Howard has been extraordinary - not the least when one considers the age old adage “let him without sin…”.

The mudslinging almost backfired spectacularly when it was discovered that one of the Liberals senior ministers, Ian Campbell, had not only met with Burke, but invited him into his office.

In a truely bizarre set of circumstances, instead of this becomming a problem for the government, it actually had the effect of reintroducing the long forgotten “ministerial code of conduct“.

One could be forgiven for wondering if we are living in a parrallel universe.

This government has a long and well publicised history of lies, coverups, disgraceful behaviour, scandals and misinformation.

- The alleged WMDs and the invasion of Iraq
- The Vivian Salon debarcle
- The David Hicks disgrace
- Children overboard
- No GST, never ever
- The Peter Reith phone card affair
- The bribes paid to Saddam Hussein under the auspices of the AWB

… hold on… Bribes? Saddam Hussein?

Yes indeed. And the two ministers who oversaw these bribes, Alexander Downer and Mark Vaile (Downer allegedly even signed a document authorising the bribes) not only maintain their roles within Howard’s government, but they are the Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister respectively - two of the most senior positions in the government.

They may not have known that the $290 million, yes, $290,000,000 was going toward directly funding Saddam Hussein’s regime, but the incompetence that they displayed in allowing this terrible transgression should not only have cost them both their jobs but also their entitlements and superannuation.

What did poor old Ian Campbell do?

He met a fat, balding man in a Panama hat.

He has been forced to fall on his sword so that Howard and his minions may continue to pursue this pathetic line of attacks on Rudd.

This all reeks of a very deep sense of desperation and fear. The government has realised that there is a strong desire for change in the Australian populace and know that Rudd is a very credible alternative.

Their mudslinging is puerile and pathetic - what is worse is that they expect the Australian people to swallow the crap that they are dishing up.

Paul Keating put it wonderfully when interviewed on the ABC today:

“The little desiccated coconut [Howard] is under pressure and he is attacking anything he can get his hands on,”
“Brian Burke and Julian Grill, they are the Arthur Daley and Terry of the West Australian Labor Party. They are like the wallpaper over there. You can’t visit Perth without running into them”

The best quote was the one that he left for Costello though:

“He’s all tip and no iceberg”

I can’t wait to vote this year…

Technorati Tags: Kevin Rudd, Brian Burke, Ian Campbell, John Howard, Peter Costello, WA Inc, Tony Abbott, hypocrisy, Paul Keating, Alexander Downer, Mark Vaile, AWB, David Hicks, GST

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Bill Leak is a genius at succinctly capturing the Australian political climate.

Here are some snippets from his pen as published in The Australian over the past two weeks.

Technorati Tags: Bill Leak, Obama, Osama, John Howard, Australian Politics, Kevin Rudd, Cartoons

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John Howard is rattled.

I can’t ever remember having seen him in such a state at any point over the past ten years.

With the opposition leader Kevin Rudd polling a phenomenal 65% as preferred PM - a popularity not seen in over 35 years in an opposition leader and Howard & Co bereft of ideas, “Honest John” it would seem, is somewhat worried.

It cannot be denied that Howard has, since his resurrection, the infamous Lazarus with a triple bypass, been a consummate politician. He has been a master of wedge politics. He has had an uncanny ability to read and measure the feelings of the populace - and unashamedly use them no matter how deplorable they may be. He has ruled over his own party room with a control afforded no other in the history of this country. Such has been the man’s determination that “Mr 18%” - once paraded on the front page of The Bulletin under the heading “Why does this man bother?” has consistently dominated his opponents during his time in office.

Times to be changing however.

Howard has never before appeared as rattled as he does now.

The people are hungry for change and are thoroughly sick of the hubris that this government has been foisting upon it for far too long now.

It is this hubris, combined with the realisation of the hunger of the people for fresh ideas and a less mean spirited environment in which to live that is driving Howard to make the mistakes that are so uncharacteristic of him.

His dreadful arrogance in attempting to lecture an American presidential candidate was a terrible error of judgement and one that will be difficult for him to escape from.

We must remember that at the last election Howard took Latham to task for “jeopardising” the US alliance with his anti-Bush rhetoric. Come 2008, it is entirely possible that the Yanks will have a Democrat president. A president who may well resent Howards implication that the Democrats are the preferred party of Islamic terrorists.

Labor leader Kevin Rudd, in one of the most eloquent speeches to parliament that I have heard, spells it out much more succinctly than I could hope to.

The videos total twenty minutes but are well worth a viewing:

Part I

Part II

Part III

Technorati Tags: Rudd, Howard, Obama, Barack Obama, John Howard, Kevin Rudd, USA, PM blasts Obama, Iraq, Hubris, Osama, Terrorists, Democrats, 2008

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Thankfully the ALP has had the good sense to elect Kevin Rudd as their leader.

Australia now has a real chance to begin to reverse the damage that has been done to it after over a decade of Howard’s government.

Despite my personal dislike for Kim Beazley - I believe that as a leader, he has not shown vision, courage or true leadership - there are seemingly two undeniable qualities that exist in the man:

• He is seemingly gentle and caring
• He is, and I say this without a hint of sarcasm or malice, possibly the best loser that I have ever seen.

In defeat, Beazley has always been his most impressive and his concession speech this morning, shortly after learning about the death of his brother was one of his finest.

His concession speech after the 2001 election was inspiring, passionate and invigorating - and it was a speech made in defeat. It was truly stirring, one of those speeches that you listened to and thought “wow, this guy is one amazing individual” and got that warm feeling running up your spine.
His concession speech/congratulations speech today was that of a true gentleman and did not contain a trace of bitterness. He implored the party and the people to get behind Kevin Rudd in true “all shoulders to the one wheel” style.

It really begs the question though - why could a man, so magnanimous, inspiring and passionate in defeat - not conjure up such magic when at the top of his game? Why could Kim Beazley never seem to display these marvelous talents to the people during normal everyday life?

During the day to day machinations of political life, Kim was never able to really connect with the people, waxing prolix and causing peoples minds to simply shut down.

If he had been able to elicit from within, on a day to day basis, the passion that he has always seemed to find in defeat, I dare say that he may today be prime minister of this country.

Let us hope that his friends and family rally around him in what must a terribly difficult time for him. Our thoughts are with he and his family on the tragic loss of his younger brother.

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An old Bleak cartoon but an appropriate one I think.

A couple of weeks ago a conservative friend and I were discussing the possibility of a Labor victory at next years election. Once a staunch supporter of Little Johnny, my friend Mick has softened in his advancing years and was prepared to entertain my supposition with the offer of a $100 bet on the outcome.

Six to eight months ago, it would have been $1000.

At the time of our conversation I suggested that Beazley would not lead the opposition into the next election, rather that Kevin Rudd would. I was of the opinion that when Parliament resumed in 2007, that their might be a leadership challenge.

Recent events suggest that such an event may occur even sooner.

I certainly hope that they get their act together and oust Beazley. I don’t like John Howard as a human being, I think that he is sneaky, mean spirited, deceitful, cunning, manipulative and cold hearted. That said, he seems to have a spine - however bent it may be under the weight of his dishonesty - and a country does need a strong and decisive leader.

Beazley on the other hand appears to me to be weak and spineless.

On the “Tampa issue“, Beazley displayed an ability to play populist politics that matched Howards. His stunning “me-tooism” was a shameless pissing contest of the highest order and completely betrayed both the principles and supporters of his party. Beazley was scared that the innate subconscious racism of the average Australian needed to be placated and so trumpeted the Howard line on asylum seekers.

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After a little more research using the official Reserve Bank of Australia’s website and also the Australian Prime Ministers website, I discovered some interesting facts about Howard’s years as treasurer.

Fact - he was treasurer from the 19th of November 1977 until the 11th of March, 1983

Fact - during his time as treasurer, interest rates peaked at 22%

Fact - the average interest rate during his tenure was 12.66%

Fact - he left Labor with interest rates of 13.95% when Fraser’s government lost office in 1983

Fact - when he became treasurer, interest rates were 10.25%. when he left office as treasurer, they were 13.95% - 3.7% higher.

Fact - during Labor’s tenure in government (12th March, 1983 - 11th March, 1996), the average interest rate was 12.22%

Fact - Labor left Howard’s government with 90 day interest rates of 7.51%

Fact - Labor reduced interest rates by 6.44%

On the balance of it, it would appear that Howard’s claim of interest rates always being higher under Labor is, well, quite untrue.

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John Howard has been consistent.

He has consistently been a master at playing upon the fear of the electorate.

Most of the time, the fears and prejudices he has evoked from within the dark recesses of the minds of the populace have been ill conceived - but they have worked - they have kept him in power.

The sad thing is that it hasn’t just been the ignorant or uneducated who have fallen for the seductive speeches of the master of wedge politics - at some point, almost everyone has fallen for it, I know that I have, sadly it seems that the educated and affluent have fallen for it regularly. Some examples of the fears that he has played upon regularly are:

• Interest rates
• Refugees
• National security
• Economic prosperity
• Industrial relations/Unions

Look at the above five items, they are all issues that might be used emotively, that might be used to cause fear because they are all related to our sense of personal security.

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